Technology and Social Change

Lecture 5: The Printing Press

Bogdan G. Popescu
bgpopescu@tec.mx

Tecnológico de Monterrey

Introduction

Before We Begin

A Puzzle

Around 1450, a single technology — the movable-type press — became available across Europe and the Islamic world.

  • Same machine. Same basic inputs. Same potential.

Yet the outcomes diverged radically:

  • In the Dutch Republic, presses multiplied freely and book prices collapsed

A page from the Gutenberg Bible (c. 1455), the first major book printed with movable type. Photo: NYC Wanderer / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 2.0).

Before We Begin

A Puzzle

Around 1450, a single technology — the movable-type press — became available across Europe and the Islamic world.

  • Same machine. Same basic inputs. Same potential.

Yet the outcomes diverged radically:

  • In England, printing fueled a scientific revolution

A page from the Gutenberg Bible (c. 1455), the first major book printed with movable type. Photo: NYC Wanderer / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 2.0).

Before We Begin

A Puzzle

Around 1450, a single technology — the movable-type press — became available across Europe and the Islamic world.

  • Same machine. Same basic inputs. Same potential.

Yet the outcomes diverged radically:

  • In the Ottoman Empire, Arabic-script printing was banned for nearly 300 years

A page from the Gutenberg Bible (c. 1455), the first major book printed with movable type. Photo: NYC Wanderer / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 2.0).

Before We Begin

A Puzzle

Around 1450, a single technology — the movable-type press — became available across Europe and the Islamic world.

  • Same machine. Same basic inputs. Same potential.

Why did identical technology produce such different outcomes across polities?

A page from the Gutenberg Bible (c. 1455), the first major book printed with movable type. Photo: NYC Wanderer / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 2.0).

Johannes Gutenberg (c. 1400–1468)

  • Born in Mainz, trained as a goldsmith
  • Developed movable metal type, oil-based ink, and the wooden screw press (~1440)
  • Printed the Gutenberg Bible (c. 1455) — ~180 copies, 42 lines per page
  • Died in relative obscurity; his financier Johann Fust seized the press in a lawsuit

Idealized portrait of Johannes Gutenberg (16th c.). No contemporary likeness survives. Source: Wikimedia Commons (public domain).

Learning Objectives

By the end of this lecture, you will be able to:

  1. Explain why the printing press was disruptive
  2. Describe the economic mechanisms of knowledge markets
  3. Analyze how information reshaped social structures
  1. Apply a political economy framework to technology
  2. Interpret empirical evidence on long-run effects

Roadmap

  1. The technology: what constraints did it relax?
  2. Economic changes: knowledge markets and literacy
  3. Social and political effects
  4. Winners, losers, and institutional resistance
  5. Evidence and modern parallels

I. The Technology

What Was the Printing Press?

Gutenberg’s movable-type press (~1440, Mainz)

  • Movable metal type: reusable letters cast in lead alloy
  • Oil-based ink: better adhesion to metal type
  • Wooden screw press: adapted from wine and olive presses
  • Standardized paper: far cheaper than parchment

None of these was entirely new — the combination was revolutionary.

Reconstruction of a Gutenberg-era press. Source: Wikimedia Commons (public domain).

Why Was It Disruptive?

Disruption = dramatic change in cost structure

Before the press

  • Marginal cost ≈ fixed cost (scribe labor)
  • ~1 book per scribe per year (for a Bible)
  • Natural monopoly: monasteries, scriptoria

After the press

  • High fixed cost but near-zero marginal cost
  • ~500 copies per press run
  • Competitive market: any entrepreneur could enter

Case Evidence: The Gutenberg Press

Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWU2iJzU3AA

1. What made the hand mold revolutionary compared to what came before?
2. What were scribes’ working conditions according to Dr. Schneider?
3. What does Fry call “the miracle” at the end?
4. Who would have seen Gutenberg’s identical pages as a threat, and why?

The Economics of Disruption

Figure 1: Printing beats scribal copying after ~20 copies.

What Constraints Did It Relax?

Constraint Before Press After Press
Reproduction cost Months of scribe labor Hours of press work
Accuracy Copyist errors accumulate Identical copies
Scale One copy at a time Hundreds per run
Access Monasteries, courts Urban workshops, markets
Language Latin (elite) Vernacular editions emerge

The press democratized reproduction — but not everywhere equally.

So What?

The press changed the cost structure of knowledge

  • Fixed costs replaced variable costs → economies of scale
  • Any literate entrepreneur could become a publisher
  • This restructured the entire market for ideas

Next: What happened when ideas became cheap?

II. Economic Changes

The Knowledge Market Before Print

A market with extreme barriers to entry

  • Supply: scriptoria — few, slow producers
  • Demand: Church, universities, patrons — few buyers
  • Prices: extremely high → books as luxury goods
  • Result: thin market, no incentive to expand literacy

This was a stable equilibrium — and the press broke it.

A scribe in a scriptorium (15th c., Jean Le Tavernier). Each book was copied by hand — months of labor per volume. Source: Wikimedia Commons (public domain).

How the Press Changed Market Structure

From monopoly to competition

  1. Entry barriers fell: a press was affordable for urban entrepreneurs
  2. Output exploded: ~20 million volumes printed by 1500
  1. Prices collapsed: fell ~80% within 50 years
  2. Variety expanded: printers published what sold

The press created the first mass market for ideas.

The Spread of Printing Across Europe

Figure 2: Adoption followed a classic S-curve pattern.

Printing towns in Europe during the incunabula period (before 1500). Source: Wikimedia Commons (public domain).

The Literacy Feedback Loop

Lower prices → more readers → more demand → more books

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flowchart LR
    A["Press Lowers<br/>Book Cost"] --> B["More People<br/>Find Reading<br/>Worthwhile"]
    B --> C["Larger<br/>Reading Public"]
    C --> D["Demand for<br/>More Titles"]
    D --> E["Printers Produce<br/>More → Costs Fall"]
    E --> A

This positive feedback loop drove exponential growth in book production and literacy.

Book Production Over Time

Figure 3: Output grew exponentially after introduction of movable type.

III. Social and Political Effects

Information Dissemination

The press changed who could say what to whom

Before the press:

  • Information flowed through hierarchical channels
  • The Church monopolized large-scale communication
  • Dissent was local and easily suppressed

After the press:

  • Pamphlets reached thousands in days
  • Luther’s pamphlets: ~400,000 copies printed by 1520
  • Authorities could no longer control the narrative

The Reformation as a Case Study

The press as accelerant of religious change

  • Luther deliberately wrote in German, not Latin
  • 1518–1525: ~6 million pamphlets in German lands
  • Cities with presses adopted Protestantism faster

“Printing is God’s highest and extremest act of grace.” — Attributed to Martin Luther

Martin Luther (1528), by Lucas Cranach the Elder. Luther used the printing press to bypass Church gatekeepers and reach a mass audience. Source: Wikimedia Commons (public domain).

The Reformation as a Case Study

The press as accelerant of religious change

The Reformation was not caused by the press — but hard to imagine without it.

Martin Luther (1528), by Lucas Cranach the Elder. Luther used the printing press to bypass Church gatekeepers and reach a mass audience. Source: Wikimedia Commons (public domain).

Social Mobility

The press created new economic roles

New Role Description
Printer Entrepreneur-craftsman; capital, not birth
Bookseller Commercial intermediary in urban networks
Author Could earn income directly from writing
Translator Bridged Latin scholarship and vernacular
Editor Curated knowledge for emerging markets

The press created a new middle class of knowledge workers.

Power Structures

Shifting the balance of power

Lost control:

  • Catholic Church (doctrine monopoly)
  • Scribes and copyists (labor replaced)
  • Monarchs (censorship became harder)

Gained influence:

  • Protestant reformers
  • Urban merchant class
  • Vernacular intellectuals
  • Printers as new gatekeepers

Causal Framework: Press → Social Change

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flowchart LR
    A["Printing<br/>Press"] --> B["Lower Book<br/>Prices"]
    A --> C["Information<br/>Access"]
    B --> D["Literacy &<br/>Human Capital"]
    D --> C
    C --> E["Reformation"]
    D --> F["Economic<br/>Growth"]
    E --> G["Political<br/>Change"]
    F --> G
    D --> H["Social<br/>Mobility"]
    F --> H

Multiple causal channels: direct information access, literacy-driven human capital, and the Reformation as a mediator.

So What?

The press reshuffled power across Europe

  • New information channels bypassed traditional gatekeepers
  • New economic roles created a knowledge middle class
  • Every winner created a corresponding loser with an incentive to fight back

Next: What happens when the losers have the power to block the technology?

IV. Political Economy: Winners and Losers

A Political Economy Framework

Every technology creates winners and losers — losers fight back

  1. Adoption is not automatic — it needs institutional tolerance
  2. Incumbents who lose will try to block the technology
  1. Diffusion speed depends on the balance of power
  2. Institutions shape who wins and who loses

The printing press is a textbook case of this framework.

Winners and Losers

Group Effect Mechanism
Printers & publishers Winner New profitable industry
Merchants & middle class Winner Cheaper commercial knowledge
Protestant reformers Winner Mass pamphlet dissemination
Vernacular authors Winner Audiences without Church patronage
Scribes & copyists Loser Labor replaced by machines
Catholic Church Loser Lost doctrinal monopoly
Monarchs Mixed Used press but faced censorship limits

Pattern: urban commercial groups gained; information monopolists lost.

Case Study: The Ottoman Empire

Why resist the press for nearly 290 years?

  • Jewish & Armenian presses operated in Istanbul from the 1490s
  • Arabic-script printing banned until 1729 (Ibrahim Müteferrika)
  • Even Müteferrika’s press was shut down after his death
  • This was not ignorance — it was political economy

Ottoman scribes at work. Scribal guilds had strong incentives to resist the press. Source: Wikimedia Commons (public domain).

The Ottoman Blocking Coalition

Three veto players, one outcome

1. Scribal guilds (hattatlar)

  • Tens of thousands of calligraphers in Istanbul
  • Organized guild with direct access to the imperial court
  • Quran copying was both livelihood and sacred duty

Ibrahim Müteferrika (1674–1745), who established the first Arabic-script press in Istanbul in 1729. Engraving by Gille Edmé Petit (1742). Source: Rijksmuseum / Wikimedia Commons (CC0).

The Ottoman Blocking Coalition

Three veto players, one outcome

2. The ulema (religious scholars)

  • Controlled education, law, and doctrinal interpretation
  • Printing sacred Arabic script declared sacrilegious
  • Real concern: printed books bypass their gatekeeper role
  • Şeyhülislam could issue fatwas blocking innovations

Ibrahim Müteferrika (1674–1745), who established the first Arabic-script press in Istanbul in 1729. Engraving by Gille Edmé Petit (1742). Source: Rijksmuseum / Wikimedia Commons (CC0).

The Ottoman Blocking Coalition

Three veto players, one outcome

3. The Sultanate’s patronage logic

  • Sultan depended on ulema for legitimacy, guilds for urban order
  • Both groups received stipends, tax exemptions, and status
  • Adopters (merchants, intellectuals) had no voice at the Porte

Ibrahim Müteferrika (1674–1745), who established the first Arabic-script press in Istanbul in 1729. Engraving by Gille Edmé Petit (1742). Source: Rijksmuseum / Wikimedia Commons (CC0).

The Ottoman Blocking Coalition

Three veto players, one outcome

The calculus: losers were organized, powerful, and inside the palace. Winners were diffuse and outside it.

Ibrahim Müteferrika (1674–1745), who established the first Arabic-script press in Istanbul in 1729. Engraving by Gille Edmé Petit (1742). Source: Rijksmuseum / Wikimedia Commons (CC0).

The Ottoman Case: Consequences

What 290 years of blocking cost

Indicator Ottoman Empire Western Europe
First Arabic-script press 1729 1450s
Books published by 1800 ~500 titles Millions of titles
Literacy rate (c. 1800) ~2–3% 30–60% (varies)
Universities (c. 1800) Madrasas (static curriculum) Research universities emerging

Lesson: technology does not diffuse on its merits — it diffuses where institutions allow it.

Case Study: England vs. France

Same technology, different institutional responses

England

  • Printing arrived 1476 (Caxton)
  • Crown initially supportive
  • Stationers’ Company: guild but market-driven
  • Press relatively free after 1695

France

  • Printing arrived 1470 (Paris)
  • Heavy royal and Church censorship
  • Index of Forbidden Books enforced
  • Philosophes used underground presses

Result: England’s open knowledge market contributed to earlier industrialization.

Institutional Openness to Print

Figure 4: Institutional environments diverged sharply across polities.

Censorship and Resistance

The political economy of information control

  • Index Librorum Prohibitorum (1559): Church banned book list
  • Licensing Acts (England, 1538–1695): pre-publication censorship
  • Book burnings: symbolic but often ineffective

Censorship is costly to enforce and creates smuggling incentives:

  • Banned books printed in tolerant jurisdictions
  • Prohibition often increased demand

So What?

Institutions determined whether technology could transform society

  • Where incumbents blocked the press, adoption stalled
  • Where institutions were permissive, knowledge markets flourished
  • Can we measure these effects empirically?

Next: What does the evidence show — and what are the modern parallels?

V. Evidence and Modern Parallels

Empirical Evidence: Dittmar (2011)

“Information Technology and Economic Change”

Question: Did the press cause city growth, or did growing cities adopt it first?

Identification: distance from Mainz as instrument for early adoption

  • Closer cities adopted earlier for geographic, not economic, reasons
  • Proximity plausibly exogenous to future growth trajectory

Findings:

  • Press cities grew ~60% faster (1500–1600)
  • Robust to pre-existing city size, location, institutions
  • Mechanism: human capital + commercial activity

City Growth: Press vs. No Press

Figure 5: Stylized illustration of Dittmar’s (2011) main finding: early press cities grew substantially faster.

Long-Run Effects: Becker & Woessmann (2009)

“Was Weber Wrong?”

Question: Did the Reformation — spread by the press — persistently affect human capital?

Identification: distance from Wittenberg as instrument for Protestant adoption

  • Closer counties became Protestant earlier
  • Compare literacy outcomes centuries later (1870s Prussian county data)

Long-Run Effects: Becker & Woessmann (2009)

“Was Weber Wrong?”

Question: Did the Reformation — spread by the press — persistently affect human capital?

Finding:

  • Counties closer to Wittenberg had significantly higher literacy in the 1870s
  • Mechanism: Protestant emphasis on reading scripture → persistent human capital advantage
  • Effect persists four centuries after the Reformation

Long-Run Effects: Rubin (2014)

“Printing and Protestants”

Question: Was it the press itself, or the Reformation, that drove long-run change?

Identification: interaction of press adoption × institutional environment

  • Press predicted Protestant adoption — but only where authorities didn’t block it
  • In cities under strong Church/imperial control, the press had no effect

Punchline: technology is necessary but not sufficient — institutions are the binding constraint

Modern Parallels: The Internet as “New Printing Press”

Dimension Printing Press (1450) Internet (1990s)
Reproduction cost Near zero (after setup) Near zero
Gatekeepers displaced Church, scribes Legacy media, publishers
New intermediaries Printers, booksellers Platforms, search engines
Censorship tool Index Librorum Prohibitorum Content moderation, algorithmic suppression, state firewalls
Market structure Fragmented, competitive Network effects → platform monopoly (winner-take-all)
Resistance coalition Ulema, scribal guilds, Church hierarchy Incumbent media, regulators, authoritarian states

Class Exercise

Modern Incumbents and Resisters

Prompt: Think of a modern technology where incumbents are currently trying to block or slow adoption.

  1. Who are the incumbents and what are they protecting?
  2. Who are the adopters and what do they gain?
  3. What institutional mechanisms are being used to resist?

Time: 5 minutes — discuss with your neighbor, then share.

Conclusion

Summary: Key Takeaways

  1. The press was disruptive: it collapsed knowledge reproduction costs
  2. It created mass markets for ideas: lower prices, wider access
  3. It shifted power from clerical elites to urban middle classes
  1. Institutions shaped diffusion: incumbents blocked where they could
  2. The political economy framework applies to all tech transitions

References

  • Becker, S. O., & Woessmann, L. (2009). Was Weber wrong? A human capital theory of Protestant economic history. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124(2), 531–596.

  • Buringh, E., & van Zanden, J. L. (2009). Charting the “Rise of the West”: Manuscripts and printed books in Europe, a long-term perspective from the sixth through eighteenth centuries. Journal of Economic History, 69(2), 409–445.

  • Dittmar, J. E. (2011). Information technology and economic change: The impact of the printing press. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126(3), 1133–1172.

  • Dittmar, J. E., & Seabold, S. (2019). New media and competition: Printing and Europe’s transformation after Gutenberg (CEP Discussion Paper No. 1600). Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics.

  • Eisenstein, E. L. (1979). The printing press as an agent of change. Cambridge University Press.

  • Febvre, L., & Martin, H.-J. (1976). The coming of the book: The impact of printing 1450–1800 (D. Gerard, Trans.). NLB. (Original work published 1958)

  • Rubin, J. (2014). Printing and Protestants: An empirical test of the role of printing in the Reformation. Review of Economics and Statistics, 96(2), 270–286.