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flowchart LR
T["Technology<br/>(material change)"] --> S["Social Change<br/>(new organization)"]
S --> D["Development<br/>(long-run outcomes)"]
D -.->|"feedback"| T
Technology and Social Change
Lecture 1: Foundations and Framework
Welcome
Learning Outcomes
Overview
- Explain key concepts and theories linking technological change to social, political, and economic development.
- Compare major theoretical perspectives on how technology shapes institutions, inequality, and growth.
- Apply course theories to real-world cases, assessing the social and political consequences of specific technologies.
- Critically evaluate empirical claims about technological change, identifying assumptions, evidence, and limitations.
- Communicate clear, well-structured arguments about technology and development in written exams, oral presentations, and class discussion.
Learning Outcomes
1. Explain Key Concepts
- Define core terms related to technology, institutions, and development
- Distinguish between technological, social, political, and economic change
- Identify key mechanisms linking technology to social outcomes
Learning Outcomes
2. Compare Theoretical Perspectives
- Identify major theories of technological change
- Compare assumptions and causal logics across frameworks
- Assess the scope and limits of each perspective
Learning Outcomes
3. Apply Theories to Real-World Cases
- Select appropriate theories for specific cases
- Use theory to interpret historical and contemporary examples
- Link abstract concepts to observable outcomes
- Explain variation across cases using theoretical tools
Learning Outcomes
4. Critically Evaluate Empirical Claims
- Distinguish theoretical arguments from empirical evidence
- Assess data, methods, and causal claims
- Identify limitations, biases, or missing evidence
- Evaluate how well evidence supports conclusions
Learning Outcomes
5. Communicate clear, well-structured arguments
- Formulate a clear analytical claim
- Support arguments with theory and evidence
- Organize ideas logically and coherently
- Communicate effectively in writing and oral presentation
Skills
- Critical Thinking: evaluate and compare competing theories of technological and social change
- Analytical Skills: analyze research questions using theoretical arguments and empirical evidence
- Effective Communication: articulate clear and structured arguments in oral and written form
- Comparative Perspective: examine political and economic outcomes across different global contexts
Logistics
- Hours: M/TH 13:00 - 15:00
- Room: Campus Santa Fe, 2003
- Office Hours: By appointment
- Presentations, mid-term, and final exam, each worth 33%
- Submit two questions based on the class readings via Canvas, each 50-100 words before 11pm on Wednesday before the discussion session on Thursday. They will help in guiding the class discussion.
- No specific books are necessary
- If you have issues finding the recommended materials, email me
Questions Every Week
Submit two questions based on the class readings via Canvas, each 50-100 words before 11pm on Wednesday before the discussion session on Thursday. They will help in guiding the class discussion.
Each question should be between 50 and 100 words.
Questions should engage with the readings, either addressing them individually or holistically.
Begin each question by referencing a specific part of the text or its overarching message. Then, formulate a critical question that encourages thoughtful discussion and deeper analysis during class.
Please post the question directly on Canvas
Example Question
Note
In Citizen and Subject, Mahmood Mamdani argues that the colonial “bifurcated state,” based on a combination of direct and indirect rule, institutionalized political and civil inequality by separating citizens from subjects. While Mamdani emphasizes the long-term consequences of these colonial institutions, to what extent can contemporary economic and political “backwardness” in Africa and Latin America be attributed to this colonial state structure rather than to post-independence political choices or global economic constraints? How convincing is Mamdani’s causal claim?
Why is it good?
- 50–100 words
- Explicit reference to a core argument
- Critical, not descriptive
- Opens space for theory vs. alternative explanations
- Well suited to discussion, not just recall
Presentations
- Presentation Basics: Deliver a 10-15 minute presentation with a clear introduction, main points, and conclusion on your assigned topic.
- Visual Aids: Use slides effectively—keep text legible, visuals relevant, and avoid overloading slides with information.
- Critical Analysis: Go beyond summarizing by discussing research limitations, unanswered questions, and areas for improvement or broader connections.
- Preparation Matters: Practice to stay within the time limit, maintain a confident tone, and avoid reading verbatim from notes or slides.
- Engage and Respond: Be ready to answer 2-3 questions from peers or the instructor, encouraging thoughtful class discussion.
Why This Course Matters
Technology Is Accelerating
Figure 1: Adoption speed of innovations to major user thresholds (historical 50M vs. modern 100M). Pre-digital/digital 50M data from Visual Capitalist & Statista adoption charts; ChatGPT ~100M monthly active users reached in ~2 months (Reuters/UBS).
Technology’s Paradoxes
- Social Media: connects billions, spreads misinformation
- Automation: boosts productivity, displaces workers
- AI: solves complex problems, concentrates power
- Smartphones: universal knowledge, addiction crisis
Why does technology sometimes help and sometimes harm?
These Paradoxes Are Not New
Technology has reshaped society for thousands of years.
But understanding why requires analytical tools.
This course teaches you to think causally about technology and social change.
The Analytical Toolkit
The Core Causal Chain
This course is built around one framework:
Each arrow hides complexity. Our job is to unpack it.
Five Analytical Tools
| Tool | Core Question |
|---|---|
| 1. Causation | Does A actually cause B? |
| 2. Mechanisms | How does A cause B? |
| 3. Distribution | Who benefits? Who loses? |
| 4. Path Dependence | How do past choices constrain today? |
| 5. Institutions | What rules shape technology’s effects? |
Tool 1: Causation vs. Correlation
Question: Did smartphones cause loneliness?
- Smartphone use and loneliness both rose
- But lonely people may adopt phones more
- A third factor could drive both
The point: We need causal analysis, not just observation.
Tool 2: Mechanisms
Question: How does automation displace workers?
Not enough to say “automation causes job loss.”
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flowchart LR
A["Automation<br/>introduced"] --> B["Machines do<br/>routine tasks"]
B --> C["Less demand for<br/>routine workers"]
C --> D["Workers displaced<br/>(if no new tasks)"]
Mechanisms tell us where to intervene.
Tool 3: Distributional Analysis
Question: Who benefits from AI? Who loses?
| Winners | Losers |
|---|---|
| Tech firms (data + algorithms) | Routine cognitive workers |
| High-skill workers (complements) | Workers without retraining |
| Consumers (better services) | Those without digital access |
Tool 4: Path Dependence
Definition: Past choices limit future options.
The QWERTY layout was designed in the 1870s to prevent mechanical type-bars from jamming.
No type-bars now—but too costly to switch.
Why it matters: Change is often hard even when everyone agrees it would help.
Tool 5: Institutional Mediation
Definition: Rules and norms shape technology’s effects.
Same factory automation, 1920s–1950s:
- Germany: Strong unions negotiated retraining
- USA: Weaker unions, more displacement
Key insight: Same technology, different institutions, different outcomes.
Practice: You Try It (2 minutes)
Technology: Uber / ride-sharing apps
Working with a neighbor, identify:
- What material constraint changed?
- What new organization emerged?
- Who benefits? Who loses?
We will use this example throughout the course.
So What?
These five tools work together to analyze any technology.
Let us test them on the most important case in human history.
Next: The Agricultural Revolution—where inequality began.
The Agricultural Revolution
Why Start with Agriculture?
The Agricultural Revolution (~10,000 BCE) is paradigmatic:
- First major technological transformation
- Effects span 12,000+ years
- Patterns recur in every later revolution
- Demonstrates all five tools clearly
Not ancient history—it is the foundation of the modern world.
Agriculture Was Invented Independently
Independent centres of origin and approximate dates. Based on Diamond (1997).
At least eight independent origins—not a single invention that diffused.
What Changed?
Before (Hunter-Gatherers)
- Mobile groups of 20–50
- Diverse diet, wild resources
- No surplus or storage
- Relatively egalitarian
After (Agriculture)
- Sedentary villages, then cities
- Less diverse but predictable diet
- Surplus production and storage
- Rapid population growth
Key: Surplus + sedentism made new social forms possible—not inevitable.
The Agricultural Paradox
“Did we domesticate wheat, or did wheat domesticate us?” — Harari (2015)
Gained
- More total food
- Larger populations
- Permanent settlements
- Occupational specialization
Lost
- Longer work hours
- Worse nutrition (less diverse)
- New diseases (density)
- Social inequality
Paradox: Agriculture spread despite making most lives harder.
Mechanism: Surplus to Stratification
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A["Surplus<br/>production"] --> B["Accumulation<br/>possible"]
B --> C["Differential<br/>wealth"]
C --> D["Power<br/>hierarchy"]
D --> E["Institutionalized<br/>stratification"]
- Foragers could not accumulate (mobility)
- Agriculture made accumulation possible
- Accumulation produced permanent inequality
Lesson: Technology enables new forms of power.
Mechanism: The Population Trap
Figure 2: World population (millions). Long-run historical points from Kremer (1993, Table I; based on McEvedy & Jones for early periods); 10,000 BCE anchor consistent with HYDE 3.2 global estimate (~4.4M); 2000 level consistent with UN Population Division (~6.1B in mid-2000).
More food –> population grows –> more farming –> cannot go back. This is path dependence.
Who Won? Who Lost?
| Winners | Losers |
|---|---|
| Those who controlled land | Agricultural laborers |
| Political and religious elites | Conquered peoples |
| Military specialists | Women (in many societies) |
| Merchants in surplus economy | Those with worse health |
Insight: Technological change always redistributes power.
Institutions That Persisted
Agriculture created remarkably durable institutions:
- Property rights in land
- Taxation systems (extracting surplus)
- Coercive labor (corvee, slavery, serfdom)
- Political hierarchy (kings, priests, bureaucrats)
Why? Beneficiaries resist change. New institutions build on old ones. Norms reinforce structures.
The Spread of Farming Was Gradual and Uneven
Expansion of farming in western Eurasia, 9600–4000 BCE. Dates show centuries of first adoption. Map: Gronenborn, Horejs, Börner & Ober (LEIZA/ÖAI).
The Long Shadow of Agriculture
Putterman & Weil (2010): longer agricultural history correlates with higher GDP today.
- 1,000 extra years of farming –> ~5–6% higher income
Mechanism: agriculture –> surplus –> specialization –> states –> infrastructure –> growth
Open debate: Geography vs. institutions vs. culture? (Lecture 4)
So What?
The Agricultural Revolution demonstrates our entire toolkit:
- Causation: agriculture caused stratification
- Mechanisms: surplus chain + population trap
- Distribution: clear winners and losers
- Path dependence: population growth locked in choices
- Institutions: rules crystallized and persisted
Next: Does this same pattern repeat across revolutions?
Patterns Across Revolutions
Four Great Technological Revolutions
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flowchart LR
A["Cognitive<br/>~70,000 BCE<br/>Language,<br/>cooperation"] --> B["Agricultural<br/>~10,000 BCE<br/>Surplus,<br/>hierarchy"]
B --> C["Industrial<br/>~1760-1840<br/>Mechanization,<br/>cities"]
C --> D["Digital<br/>~1970-present<br/>Computation,<br/>AI"]
Each followed a recognizable pattern.
So What?
The same pattern—from agriculture to AI—keeps recurring.
Recognizing patterns is not enough. You need to think critically.
Next: Three questions to protect you from bad arguments.
Thinking Like an Analyst
Intended vs. Unintended Consequences
Social media: designed to connect, amplified misinformation
Agriculture: adopted to reduce hunger, trapped by population growth
Why this happens:
- Complex systems produce emergent properties
- Individual rationality does not equal collective optimality
- Institutions persist beyond their original purpose
Three Common Analytical Mistakes
1. Technological determinism
“AI will inevitably eliminate jobs” — Effects depend on institutions and policy.
2. Confusing correlation with causation
“Social media and depression rose together” — Identify mechanisms first.
3. Ignoring distribution
“Technology benefits society” — Which parts of society, specifically?
So What?
Critical thinking separates analysis from description.
These questions will guide every reading and discussion.
Next: A roadmap for the semester ahead.
Where We Go From Here
The Course Roadmap
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A["Foundations<br/>L1-L2"] --> B["Historical Cases<br/>L3-L5, L8"]
B --> C["Theory of<br/>Technology - L9"]
C --> D["Contemporary<br/>L11, L13-L15"]
Each lecture applies the five analytical tools from today.
Why This Matters to You
You are living through a technological revolution right now.
In 50 years, will historians say the Digital Revolution:
- Created unprecedented opportunity?
- Created a new “trap” like agriculture?
- Both?
Your generation will shape the answer. This course gives you the tools to understand the stakes.
References
Harari, Y. N. (2015). Sapiens: A brief history of humankind. Harper.
Kremer, M. (1993). Population growth and technological change: One million B.C. to 1990. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 681–716.
Putterman, L., & Weil, D. N. (2010). Post-1500 population flows and the long-run determinants of economic growth and inequality. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(4), 1627–1682.
Popescu (TEC) Technology & Social Change Lecture 1: Foundations and Framework